Worse than scarcity

It has been said that the struggles for resources in the 21st century could lead to military conflicts. It hadn't been obvious to me that that was actually true. But in looking at two current projects in resource development, one in India and one being done by China, I found some scenarios that could indeed result in military conflicts.

INDIA: THE RIVER-LINKING PROJECT

The extent of the water crisis in India is well-known and here is an excellent summary of it. Notice in particular this indictment from the article: "India’s water crisis is predominantly a manmade problem. India’s climate is not particularly dry, nor is it lacking in rivers and groundwater. Extremely poor management, unclear laws, government corruption, and industrial and human waste have caused this water supply crunch and rendered what water is available practically useless due to the huge quantity of pollution." 

Now, mitigation of human suffering is not exactly a crowning achievement of recent Indian governments. But perhaps they will be motivated to act, as their vaunted economic growth is threatened by the same water issues.

Unfortunately, an old and terrible approach to Indian water resources has suddenly reared its ugly head.  This is the Indian River-Linking Project,, conceived decades ago as a solution for both flooding and drought. In some sense, the river-linking idea is a lot like U.S. Army Corps of Engineers flood-control projects in this country. There is one huge difference, however: the Himalayan-origin rivers that will be affected cross into Bangladesh before returning to India. The project will basically turn Bangladesh into a desert.

Obviously, the Bangladeshi military capability can do nothing to India. Bangladeshi interests might, however, resort to extreme measures within its own borders (dynamiting dams, whatever) to deny India the water it would have gotten. This could be an invitation for Indian military incursions into Bangladesh to protect and stabilize the flows. And might China not see this as an opportunity to "defend" Bangladesh with Chinese forces?

We always find these scenarios far-fetched--until they happen. Then we ask, "How could they have been so stupid?" And of course, China and India have capable nuclear arsenals.

CHINA: LEASED AGRICULTURAL LAND IN AFRICA

China leaves no stone unturned in attempting to feed its people. One of the stones that was first turned in the 1960's was Africa. Back then, the Chinese goals were political rather than economic--wooing fellow-travelers in the war against imperialism. Today, however, it would appear that China hopes to make a significant addition to domestic food production through its agricultural investments in Africa. And China is not alone, with South Korea also making big African land plays.

I wish them well. In the best case, this would provide economic stimulus in Africa, and backup food supplies for the all-too-common African famines, as well as a supplement to Chinese production. But here I will quote Alan Bjerga's great book Endless Appetites, the story of the recent worldwide instability in food prices. Alan traveled the world to understand the interconnections of farms, markets and consumers. He observes, "Land grab touches nerves, with its echoes of rich outsiders carving up Africa to exploit its resources and residents."

The perfect storm happens when China actually becomes dependent on such crops as an integral part of its food supply; when a shortage in the producing country causes hungry people to pilfer the crops grown for export; and the local government does nothing to stop them, fearing riots. Could China actually be tempted to send in troops to secure "their" produce? I wouldn't bet against it. And what happens when the poor nation appeals to the world community to protect it against "invasion"?