The Big Three of the 21st Century--Food, Energy and Water

Here at the beginning of the 21st century, the challenges are clear: the growing population is stressing the Earth's resources to the breaking point. The "big three" are Food, Energy and Water--whose initials ominously spell FEW. Looming shortages make human misery more likely as time passes without finding solutions. Will the 21st Century be known as the Century of Scarcity? Or will we find new technical, political and economic approaches to free humanity from want and discontent?

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Saturday, May 5, 2012

The "no silver bullet" principle

There are so many worth efforts going on to fight hunger through improved agriculture. An excellent HuffPost Green article gives a long list of worthy efforts. Perhaps with enough such creative, innovative approaches, we really can conquer the coming world resource challenges.

But the article tells a second story as well. Every incidence of food insecurity, every crisis situation, every sustainability issue, is unique. Thirty percent of African produce is lost due to insufficient storage--but how to get the produce from storage to the area of greatest need? What if those areas suffer unexpected (or expected) drought? So there are lots of "green bullets," but no one "silver bullet."

This poses challenges for research--how many people is each new approach going to help? It's a problem for policy, too--how do I spread resources for greatest effectiveness?

A few of us have looked at this problem as an opportunity. There is a whole subfield of computer science called "automated decision support." The achievements in this field have helped decision makers--engineers, designers, analysts, planners--find the good options out of huge numbers of possibilities.

To my knowledge, these powerful tools haven't been applied to food insecurity yet. Perhaps the time has come.

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