Another scarcity

The looming scarcities of food, water and energy are familiar to many of us. Professor Andre Diederen of the Netherlands suggests that we are about to experience a scarcity of metals as well. His presentation at the Peak Summit, Alcatraz, Italy can be viewed at http://www.theoildrum.com/files/20090627_TODASPOSummit_Diederen_Elements%20of%20hope.pdf

Professor Diederen's explanation of a metals peak is based on a 3% growth rate, the increased energy requirement to extract metals from the lower grade ores now being processed, and the energy crisis itself. His words:

• The time-production profile of large individual mines resembles a bell-shaped curve comparable with oil
• The right part of the bell-shaped curve is more difficult to realize
  because the “low-hanging fruit” has already been harvested
• It takes increasingly more energy to “harvest” the remaining energy
  and the remaining minerals

The increasing interest in electric vehicles has sensitized us to the world lithium supply. Many other metals are also important to technologies that would contribute to a robust energy future. So a potential metals peak and subsequent shortages feeds back to the energy picture, making the establishment of energy sustainability more difficult.