Another scarcity

The looming scarcities of food, water and energy are familiar to many of us. Professor Andre Diederen of the Netherlands suggests that we are about to experience a scarcity of metals as well. His presentation at the Peak Summit, Alcatraz, Italy can be viewed at http://www.theoildrum.com/files/20090627_TODASPOSummit_Diederen_Elements%20of%20hope.pdf

Professor Diederen's explanation of a metals peak is based on a 3% growth rate, the increased energy requirement to extract metals from the lower grade ores now being processed, and the energy crisis itself. His words:

• The time-production profile of large individual mines resembles a bell-shaped curve comparable with oil
• The right part of the bell-shaped curve is more difficult to realize
  because the “low-hanging fruit” has already been harvested
• It takes increasingly more energy to “harvest” the remaining energy
  and the remaining minerals

The increasing interest in electric vehicles has sensitized us to the world lithium supply. Many other metals are also important to technologies that would contribute to a robust energy future. So a potential metals peak and subsequent shortages feeds back to the energy picture, making the establishment of energy sustainability more difficult.

A Small Amount of Energy Goes a Long Way

To appreciate what a small amount of energy means to a citizen of a developing nation, read The Boy Who Harnessed The Wind by James Kamkwambe (William Morrow, 2009, ISBN 978-0-06-173032-0). Before the energy part, you'll read the fifty pages describing the famine he experienced; imagine eating indigestible materials such as tree bark, not because they provide nutrition but simply because it minimizes the pain of starvation.

After surviving the famine, James built a wind-powered generator that provided his family with enough electricity to burn four light bulbs at night, and to power a portable radio. Before this, everyone went to sleep when the sun went down; with wind-provided electricity, the children were able to study at night.

James attained world fame for his perseverance and creativity. The message for this blog, though, is how much a little energy can improve the quality of life for people in developing nations. The subtitle of the book illustrates this: "Creating currents of electricity & hope."

Little-appreciated facts about China

The title of this blog, Century of Scarcity, summarizes a great number of clear trends in resource availability around the world. This post provides a good example. Thanks go to John Bryant Starr, whose 1997 book Understanding China first brought this one to my attention.

The land area of China is 9,700,000 square kilometers and change. Of this, about 1,200,000 square kilometers are under cultivation. Chinese officials consider this the minimum needed for food production. A comparison with US land area is in order. The land area of China and the US are almost exactly the same, and the US has slightly more land (1,600,000 square kilometers) under cultivation. However, the population of China is four times the US population, and growing. This suggests that agricultural self-sufficiency for China will be an enormous challenge. Professor Starr's book cites a study that suggests, in a worse case scenario, a Chinese grain shortage exceeding the world surplus.

In a recent article in the Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/23/china-food-shortage, Chinese officials are cited as saying that they are committed to self-sufficiency, and are increasing agricultural expenditures at a rate exceeding inflation. The bottom line, however, is the challenge posed by the small amount of arable land.

And as in most industrialized nations, arable land in China is diminishing! The Guardian article explains this clearly: "the growing problem of feeding the world's biggest population as cities expand into farmland and urban residents consume more meat and vegetables." Suitable land for housing will not be found in the Gobi Desert or the Himalayas. Housing developments will be built next to existing infrastructure, and as often as not, they are on former farmland.

The land situation in China exemplifies perfectly the "Century of Scarcity."