What direction on climate?

The talks starting in Doha are looking like they're going to stumble . To me, that's not surprising. There is more recognition now than at Kyoto that aggressive measures to curb carbon emissions are also likely to curb economies--and this might not be the best time for that. Also, some energy moves are happening independent of Kyoto, like a big shift to natural gas . Two things to know about natural gas: (1) it's actually economical, unlike renewables, and (2) for the same energy output, there's 60% less CO2 emitted--not perfect but a big improvement.

It's worth pondering this quote from MIT Technology Review:

"UCSD's David ­Victor, for one, estimates that a modern gas-fired power plant emits roughly two-fifths as much carbon as even a new coal plant. According to his calculations, the United States is saving about 400 million metric tons of carbon emissions annually in the recent switch to natural gas from coal. That's roughly twice as much progress as the European Union has made in complying with the Kyoto Protocol through policy efforts. 'There is no single event that has had as large and sustained an impact on carbon emissions as the gas revolution,' he says."

So climate negotiators need to get their heads around these things. They need to figure out how to support technologies that are ready for prime time. And carbon control measures need to support economies, not hamstring them.