Can technology be the savior?

Recently researchers have posted a new result that could help rice to thrive in poor soils . Yes, it would require genetic modification. So some will object to it on that basis. The moral question--can we object to a technology on the basis of our fears and prejudices, if it will prevent starvation?--raises its head again. This particular discovery may be less objectionable than some other GM approaches, because it involves taking a gene from one rice strain and putting it into another.

But the point I want to make is in the area of technology maturity. Notice that the research findings were in the journal Nature. That means that they are essentially at the level of basic science. What lies ahead for this technology is turning science into product:

• delivering seed by the ton instead of by the handful
• rigorous large-scale field trials
• getting the cost of the technology under control
• addressing the safety issue
• marketing, training, distribution

I have no experience in bringing agricultural technologies to market. But I do have experience in other areas: new materials; robotics; spacecraft; energy. In every case, one can normally count on a couple of DECADES before the technology reaches the marketplace.

Case in point: superconducting wire. It's wonderful stuff--electricity passes through it with no losses. So the use of energy becomes more efficient, with reduced damage to the environment. The materials with the best superconducting properties to date were discovered in 1986. The first application of them in a real power system happened this year.

Waiting for technology to be the savior is twice foolish--because good ideas are unpredictable, and because once they occur, they must still be matured into a useful state.