Can technology be the savior?

Recently researchers have posted a new result that could help rice to thrive in poor soils . Yes, it would require genetic modification. So some will object to it on that basis. The moral question--can we object to a technology on the basis of our fears and prejudices, if it will prevent starvation?--raises its head again. This particular discovery may be less objectionable than some other GM approaches, because it involves taking a gene from one rice strain and putting it into another.

But the point I want to make is in the area of technology maturity. Notice that the research findings were in the journal Nature. That means that they are essentially at the level of basic science. What lies ahead for this technology is turning science into product:

• delivering seed by the ton instead of by the handful
• rigorous large-scale field trials
• getting the cost of the technology under control
• addressing the safety issue
• marketing, training, distribution

I have no experience in bringing agricultural technologies to market. But I do have experience in other areas: new materials; robotics; spacecraft; energy. In every case, one can normally count on a couple of DECADES before the technology reaches the marketplace.

Case in point: superconducting wire. It's wonderful stuff--electricity passes through it with no losses. So the use of energy becomes more efficient, with reduced damage to the environment. The materials with the best superconducting properties to date were discovered in 1986. The first application of them in a real power system happened this year.

Waiting for technology to be the savior is twice foolish--because good ideas are unpredictable, and because once they occur, they must still be matured into a useful state.

The "local ripple effect" of the US drought

Bloomberg agricultural reporter Alan Bjerga, often cited in this blog as the author of Endless Appetites, takes a trip to the US Midwest to report on the drought's consequences for agriculture-dependent communities and businesses . The same ripple effect is seen anywhere in the world: when drought hits, it isn't just the farmers who suffer. It is instructive, however, to remember that this is happening in the world's greatest food-exporting nation.

The "global ripple effect" will come later--when all those grain elevators are empty with no 2012 crops to refill them.

Power generation is not enough

In an earlier post, we presented an argument proposing that food crisis events would grow faster than the population. The keystone of that argument was that distribution infrastructure, including the energy needed for transportation, was also under pressure. Therefore even if food supplies grow with the population, the "black swan" events would become more frequent.

The same argument can be applied to water shortages, and to energy shortages. An excellent example of the latter was this week's massive blackout in India. This was not about supply, it was about grid control and connectivity--nearly invisible parts of the infrastructure, where failures have enormous ramifications.

Infrastructure investments bring no immediate reward to the policy makers who fund them. They are largely invisible to the political base. In addition, the very complexity of the infrastructure can daunt even those who are willing to fund improvements.

Instead, political will and a long-term thirst for prosperity must be the drivers of improvement. A superb example is Singapore's progress toward a robust water system, which that small country has pursued since the 1960's.

But in addition to investment, bureaucratic streamlining is often needed as well. Red tape and complexities of officialdom can block access to otherwise functional infrastructures.

Food, energy and water are not only connected to each other; they are connected to the social and economic fabric of each nation. Infrastructure failures reduce economic productivity, which then harms both government and citizen. Lower productivity means a lower tax base, restricting resources for infrastructure upgrades. And lower productivity means lower incomes, so the citizen is less able to save against times of shortage, and more vulnerable to resource variability.

UPDATE: here is additional information on the Indian blackout, which  happened because food, energy and water are really one thing . Water generates electricity; electricity is used to pump water; no water, no food.