Hunger and social unrest

One of the premises of this blog is that the "Century of Scarcity" will result, not just in scarcity, but in threats to international security. A study by the New England Complex Systems Institute shows that this may already be happening.

Food price spikes in 2007-8 were closely correlated with petroleum price spikes. This is detailed in Andrew Bjerga's book Endless Appetites, which I've cited in this blog. The more recent NECSI study shows how the food price spikes in 2008 and 2011 were also correlated with outbreaks of social unrest in the Middle East--i.e., the Arab Spring.

The NECSI study raises an alarm. The US drought has pushed up world food prices. So more instability may be on the way in the next several months.

A previous entry in this blog examined the statistical nature of famine events, and whether an increase in population would cause merely a proportional increase in such events, or even more because of interactive effects. The chart from the NECSI study shows that the increase in unrest events is even higher than the food price rise would suggest from mere proportionality:


(NECSI image from Wired article)

Of course, there is more going on here than just food price increases. Social "science" is tough to do scientifically because of all the variables. But what this data does suggest is a "critical system," using the term as it is used in physics: an irreversible, qualitative change in the nature of the system.

Such critical events will become more common as resources are more dear in the Century of Scarcity. As we've stated before, obvious trouble spots will be in the "land grab" locations where nations such as China have leased land to feed their own citizens. Food shortages there will certainly lead to unrest if food is shipped out while the locals go hungry.