The various reviews don't really say what Emmott does while onstage, other than that he uses crutches because he's hurt his back. But in my book, if it gets attention on this most important of all problems, he's doing something worthwhile.
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Stating the obvious, on stage
Professor Stephen Emmott, director of Microsoft's lab in Cambridge, UK, believes as I do that the size of the human population is the root cause of the many looming challenges of this century. To dramatize the point, Emmott is staging a performance on the theme at a London theater.
The various reviews don't really say what Emmott does while onstage, other than that he uses crutches because he's hurt his back. But in my book, if it gets attention on this most important of all problems, he's doing something worthwhile.
The various reviews don't really say what Emmott does while onstage, other than that he uses crutches because he's hurt his back. But in my book, if it gets attention on this most important of all problems, he's doing something worthwhile.
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Hunger and social unrest
One of the premises of this blog is that the "Century of Scarcity" will result, not just in scarcity, but in threats to international security. A study by the New England Complex Systems Institute shows that this may already be happening.
Food price spikes in 2007-8 were closely correlated with petroleum price spikes. This is detailed in Andrew Bjerga's book Endless Appetites, which I've cited in this blog. The more recent NECSI study shows how the food price spikes in 2008 and 2011 were also correlated with outbreaks of social unrest in the Middle East--i.e., the Arab Spring.
The NECSI study raises an alarm. The US drought has pushed up world food prices. So more instability may be on the way in the next several months.
A previous entry in this blog examined the statistical nature of famine events, and whether an increase in population would cause merely a proportional increase in such events, or even more because of interactive effects. The chart from the NECSI study shows that the increase in unrest events is even higher than the food price rise would suggest from mere proportionality:
(NECSI image from Wired article)
Of course, there is more going on here than just food price increases. Social "science" is tough to do scientifically because of all the variables. But what this data does suggest is a "critical system," using the term as it is used in physics: an irreversible, qualitative change in the nature of the system.
Such critical events will become more common as resources are more dear in the Century of Scarcity. As we've stated before, obvious trouble spots will be in the "land grab" locations where nations such as China have leased land to feed their own citizens. Food shortages there will certainly lead to unrest if food is shipped out while the locals go hungry.
Food price spikes in 2007-8 were closely correlated with petroleum price spikes. This is detailed in Andrew Bjerga's book Endless Appetites, which I've cited in this blog. The more recent NECSI study shows how the food price spikes in 2008 and 2011 were also correlated with outbreaks of social unrest in the Middle East--i.e., the Arab Spring.
The NECSI study raises an alarm. The US drought has pushed up world food prices. So more instability may be on the way in the next several months.
A previous entry in this blog examined the statistical nature of famine events, and whether an increase in population would cause merely a proportional increase in such events, or even more because of interactive effects. The chart from the NECSI study shows that the increase in unrest events is even higher than the food price rise would suggest from mere proportionality:
(NECSI image from Wired article)
Of course, there is more going on here than just food price increases. Social "science" is tough to do scientifically because of all the variables. But what this data does suggest is a "critical system," using the term as it is used in physics: an irreversible, qualitative change in the nature of the system.
Such critical events will become more common as resources are more dear in the Century of Scarcity. As we've stated before, obvious trouble spots will be in the "land grab" locations where nations such as China have leased land to feed their own citizens. Food shortages there will certainly lead to unrest if food is shipped out while the locals go hungry.
Sunday, July 22, 2012
A drip of good news in the water picture
A large new aquifer has been found in Namibia.
Not only is that good news for the Namibians. Namibia is reasonably close to the Sahel, where famine is a constant threat . If the new water supply could be used to create a sustainable agricultural system in north Namibia, and the food transported further north, the food security of the entire region could be enhanced. Presumably the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Capacity Building and Development, part of the Foreign Agricultural Service, is factoring in this new discovery.
Not only is that good news for the Namibians. Namibia is reasonably close to the Sahel, where famine is a constant threat . If the new water supply could be used to create a sustainable agricultural system in north Namibia, and the food transported further north, the food security of the entire region could be enhanced. Presumably the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Capacity Building and Development, part of the Foreign Agricultural Service, is factoring in this new discovery.
Methanol--a truly sustainable energy product
Nobel prize-winning chemist George Olah of the University of Southern California has long been a champion of methanol as an alternative fuel. In fact, he has a grand vision of a methanol economy that closes many of the open links in our current energy economy. Olah and his associates have been thinking about aspects of this idea for many years. But as with any grand idea, the question becomes, what is needed to sweep away a massive infrastructure that is already in place?
For one thing, what is needed is customers. Now a Danish company, ECOmove, is offering a methanol-powered car. They call it an electric car, which it must be since its drive motors are electric. But in the US, "electric car" means "car that has batteries, limited range, and must be charged frequently." Chemical fuels have much higher energy densities than batteries, meaning that cars can go farther. ECOmove claims a 500-mile (800 kilometer) range for its vehicle.
(from the ECOmove website)
Perhaps ECOmove has solved the problem of low lifetimes for fuel cells that have plagued methanol concepts until now, and perhaps they haven't. The important thing is the innovation. Having customers will spur further innovations.
As a friend says, "Food, energy and water are one thing." Methanol can be produced from a variety of materials including farm waste. Having a second product can help stabilize farm incomes and make them more sustainable. Beyond transportation in developed nations, the use of biofuels that DON'T compete with food for arable land would be an important advance in sustainability.
For one thing, what is needed is customers. Now a Danish company, ECOmove, is offering a methanol-powered car. They call it an electric car, which it must be since its drive motors are electric. But in the US, "electric car" means "car that has batteries, limited range, and must be charged frequently." Chemical fuels have much higher energy densities than batteries, meaning that cars can go farther. ECOmove claims a 500-mile (800 kilometer) range for its vehicle.
(from the ECOmove website)
Perhaps ECOmove has solved the problem of low lifetimes for fuel cells that have plagued methanol concepts until now, and perhaps they haven't. The important thing is the innovation. Having customers will spur further innovations.
As a friend says, "Food, energy and water are one thing." Methanol can be produced from a variety of materials including farm waste. Having a second product can help stabilize farm incomes and make them more sustainable. Beyond transportation in developed nations, the use of biofuels that DON'T compete with food for arable land would be an important advance in sustainability.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
A big water problem in a wealthy nation
Clearly, water scarcities will cause the greatest hardships in the poorest nations--those with the fewest options for engineered alternatives. But water issues in developed countries can also harm the most vulnerable, especially if those have the potential to diminish foodstuffs available for export.
Australia is a very wealthy nation and a major agricultural exporter. On the eastern half of the country is the Murray-Darling Basin, named for the two huge river systems that flow through it:
This is an enormous region. It is over one million square kilometers, 14% of the entire land area of Australia, or twice the area of California--however you want to look at it. Other facts that are important for this blog:
Some of the agriculture in the MDB (40%) uses irrigation. As in many nations today, there has been over-pumping. Extraction from the Murray and Darling rivers has led to numerous environmental problems including:
To enable progress in the midst of disagreement, the national government created the Murray-Darling Basin Authority and charged it to come up with a plan that returned more water to the environment, while minimizing the economic impacts to the region. The first version of the plan was centered around a 40% reduction in irrigation. Farmers were so pleased with that that they conducted public burnings of copies of the plan.
Oh, forgot to mention: this planning was going on as MDB farmers were recovering from the "millennium drought": many were forced out of agriculture or into bankruptcy. No doubt that made the irrigation-reduction pill somewhat hard to swallow.
(Photo from the website of the Australia TEA party. "Julia" is of course the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard.)
The Authority has released a revised draft of the Basin Plan, sent it to the State governments, and is preparing a response to their comments. The revised plan reduces the irrigation reduction to about 20%, and asserts that the net reduction in the Basin economy will be only about 1%. That assumes, however, a shift in economic activity from agriculture to other income sources such as fishing, boating and tourism. Which means less food available for export.
And ironically, the protests, now, are starting to come from the environmental community, who say that the amount of water returned to the environment isn't enough.
(Photo from the website of the Weekly Times of Australia.)
The lesson is that agriculture has an INESCAPABLE effect on the environment; yet we are entering a period of human history where the danger of mass starvation has never been greater. Australia's attempt to resolve this dilemma is instructive and troubling at the same time.
Australia is a very wealthy nation and a major agricultural exporter. On the eastern half of the country is the Murray-Darling Basin, named for the two huge river systems that flow through it:
- Basin generates 39% of the national income derived from agricultural production
- Produces 53% of Australian cereals grown for grain, 95% of oranges, and 54% of apples
- Supports 28% of the nation’s cattle herd, 45% of sheep, and 62% of pigs.
Some of the agriculture in the MDB (40%) uses irrigation. As in many nations today, there has been over-pumping. Extraction from the Murray and Darling rivers has led to numerous environmental problems including:
- excessive downstream salinity
- hypoxic blackwater events
- cyanobacteria blooms
- acid sulphate soil impacts
- reduction in native fish species
To enable progress in the midst of disagreement, the national government created the Murray-Darling Basin Authority and charged it to come up with a plan that returned more water to the environment, while minimizing the economic impacts to the region. The first version of the plan was centered around a 40% reduction in irrigation. Farmers were so pleased with that that they conducted public burnings of copies of the plan.
Oh, forgot to mention: this planning was going on as MDB farmers were recovering from the "millennium drought": many were forced out of agriculture or into bankruptcy. No doubt that made the irrigation-reduction pill somewhat hard to swallow.
(Photo from the website of the Australia TEA party. "Julia" is of course the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard.)
The Authority has released a revised draft of the Basin Plan, sent it to the State governments, and is preparing a response to their comments. The revised plan reduces the irrigation reduction to about 20%, and asserts that the net reduction in the Basin economy will be only about 1%. That assumes, however, a shift in economic activity from agriculture to other income sources such as fishing, boating and tourism. Which means less food available for export.
And ironically, the protests, now, are starting to come from the environmental community, who say that the amount of water returned to the environment isn't enough.
(Photo from the website of the Weekly Times of Australia.)
The lesson is that agriculture has an INESCAPABLE effect on the environment; yet we are entering a period of human history where the danger of mass starvation has never been greater. Australia's attempt to resolve this dilemma is instructive and troubling at the same time.
Sunday, July 15, 2012
A high-profile grant for a GM crop effort
The Gates Foundation, apparently unafraid of controversy, has made a $10M award to a research effort in genetically modifying cereal crops. The scientific concept is to enable the crops to fix nitrogen--just like some legumes do, but in this case acting as a "self-fertilizer." The goal is higher yields in places that can't afford artificial fertilizers--such as much of Africa.
Near the bottom of the article, a GM critic mentions that the promise of GM crops to increase yields has yet to be realized. That by itself doesn't seem like a good reason to curtail research, when the promise is so great. Other funding organizations, such as the UK's Agricultural Biotechnology Council, appear to be getting on the bandwagon.
On the other hand, some concerns exist. Prudence dictates the use of controlled growing environments with EACH new GM crop to ensure safety.
Near the bottom of the article, a GM critic mentions that the promise of GM crops to increase yields has yet to be realized. That by itself doesn't seem like a good reason to curtail research, when the promise is so great. Other funding organizations, such as the UK's Agricultural Biotechnology Council, appear to be getting on the bandwagon.
On the other hand, some concerns exist. Prudence dictates the use of controlled growing environments with EACH new GM crop to ensure safety.
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
The Singapore Water Expo
The Singapore Water Expo is part of Singapore International Water Week. At the Expo, 650 companies displayed their technologies for improving water cleanliness, dealing with wastewater, and protecting the environment. There were some very big players represented, in addition to the hundreds of smaller ones:
Singapore is a meaningful venue for a water conference. Here's what I learned from my cabbie: "When we achieved independence, we had only three reservoirs. Now we have ten. One bay has been dammed off and converted from salt to fresh water. We buy water from Malaysia but soon we should become water independent. We collect rainwater runoff and purify it. There are severe fines for washing your car and letting the runoff go into the drains." The Singapore water agency PUB is applying state-of-the-art technologies, with a patented variable salinity processes and research into membranes containing water-transporting aquaporin proteins:
A feature of the Expo that struck me was its focus on URBAN water systems. I came naively looking for solutions for the developing nations and isolated locations. Urban systems are of course critical, as the world moves toward 70% urban. Livable cities was a key topic at Rio+20, and of course water access is a primary issue in that regard. I wonder what fraction of the 1.2 billion people said to lack access to clean water are in cities, and what fraction in rural areas.
Product categories at the Expo were roughly grouped into:
- membranes and filtration
- piping, pipe inspection and repair (including an emphasis on "trenchless" or in-place repair)
- instrumentation and control
- pumps
- solid waste systems, such as dryers, strainers, etc.
- engineering services
- GE's membrane system integrated with wind power, which used the turbine to create water pressure directly rather than first creating electricity and then using that to power an electric pump
- A wide variety of robots for remote piping inspection and repair
- Numerous new membrane technologies
An exception to the large urban emphasis was this small, self-contained purification system for remote areas:
The technical progress in water systems is very encouraging. But as the UN's World Water Development Report-3 emphasizes, investment in water systems will be necessary to ward off catastrophe. None of the technologies on display at the Expo looked inexpensive!
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