Sorry for the long drought (ha, ha) in posting. I've been completing my work in Australia and traveling back to the US. In Australia, I helped with conceptual and technical studies of a satellite for monitoring soil moisture--a very important capability for efficient agricultural use of water.
The impetus for this post is a recent study showing that food production, particularly grains, must increase between 60% and 110% by 2050 to keep pace with the Earth's growing population. This cannot be surprising. Fortunately it is consistent with studies by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, cited in previous posts, indicating that production must increase by 73% by 2050.
As the recent study notes, "one solution is to increase the amount of cropland." The FAO had concluded in its 2006 interim report that 120 million hectares of additional arable land would be needed, even if agricultural efficiency continued growing at its present rate. The 2012 update to the FAO report makes that figure slightly smaller:
"The overall result for developing countries is a projected net increase in the arable area of some 107 million ha (from 968 in the base year to 1075 in 2050), an increase of 11 percent...Not surprisingly, the bulk of this projected expansion is expected to take place in sub-Saharan Africa (51 million) and Latin America (49 million), with almost no land expansion in South Asia, and a constant area in Near East/North Africa and East Asia."
But, let's face it: if 107 million new hectares of arable
land are going to appear in Africa and South America, there's only one place it's going to come from--rain forests. Because arable land also needs water. It's not going to be in the Andes or the Kalahari.
Destroying 107 million hectares of
rain forest is not a good idea. An alternative solution would be high-technology solutions that allowed food production on non-arable land. Like vertical farming. And solar desalination of brackish water coupled with hydroponic gardening. But can this be done in an economical way?
