The Big Three of the 21st Century--Food, Energy and Water

Here at the beginning of the 21st century, the challenges are clear: the growing population is stressing the Earth's resources to the breaking point. The "big three" are Food, Energy and Water--whose initials ominously spell FEW. Looming shortages make human misery more likely as time passes without finding solutions. Will the 21st Century be known as the Century of Scarcity? Or will we find new technical, political and economic approaches to free humanity from want and discontent?

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Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Very, very good news: food from the desert

I try to avoid exaggeration. But the word "very" was repeated in the title to shout out the importance of an agricultural advance here in Australia.

Out in the scrub desert of South Australia, Sundrop Farms is operating a huge greenhouse producing food with no fresh water from outside . They are using solar energy to desalinate brackish water, and the water becomes an input to a hydroponic growing system.

None of these individual advances are new in themselves. The biggest difference between this and the numerous other hydroponic concepts out there, such as vertical farming, is that the Sundrop process has already proven itself to be economically viable--and scalable to enormous systems.

We all know that solar energy has yet to prove itself competitive with fossil fuel and nuclear generated electricity. That's why it's still struggling. So it's the economic success of the Sundrop process that is really the big news here.Their approach is completely market-driven: "People want nice-looking veggies. So we're going to make sure that our veggies are nice. So that people actually buy them." Wow, what a concept.

[The inventor of the technology is sniffing with disgust. "Oh, my God, they've sold out to the evil capitalists! I'd much rather tinker in my electricity-free home and never actually feed anyone!" He also hates the fact that they use some natural gas to keep the greenhouse warm at night, so the tomatoes don't look like they have tumors. Darn, only 95% of the energy needs are provided by the sun instead of 100%. How could they be so profligate?]

Even beyond these magnificent accomplishments, the Sundrop process will solve yet another problem, which the article in The Australian doesn't mention.

Ten years ago, the UN Food and Agricultural Organization estimated that 120 million hectares of new farmland would be required by 2030 to avoid massive food insecurity. That's the entire growing area of the US or China. Where in God's name would that come from? Most likely, rain forest. Because you need fresh water to grow things.

But not with the Sundrop approach. So in addition to reducing the demands on the world's fresh water, AND eliminating pesticides, AND eliminating most of the energy costs of agricultural production, the Sundrop process reduces the threat to our diminishing rain forests. As noted before, Sundrop is growing food in the desert. Qatar is the next Sundrop site.

Now, I will grant you, The Australian's paean to this process is rather unquestioning, perhaps even unctuous. A little contemplation raised some concerns:
  • Does the process actually work on pure seawater, or only brackish water? What is the fate of the brine (the concentrated salt water left after evaporation)? Does it become an environmental pollutant? This is a serious concern for all desalination processes.
  • What estimated lifetime of the system is used to calculate the return on investment? Granted that the desert environment is a good one from the longevity standpoint, many of the components surely require refurbishment over time.
  • What level of training is required for the operators? The article emphasizes the complexity of the system. Could people of average education in developing nations be qualified to operate the system successfully?
  • How is harvesting accomplished? If harvesting is manual, where are the workers to live? In the desert? If harvesting is automated, there are energy costs, capital investment and maintenance to factor in.
  • Do the exterior surfaces, particularly the mirrors, require cleaning? How is that done, and how often? Is fresh water required? This has killed many solar power projects located in deserts.
  • How robust are the pest control and pollinator solutions?
I will try to explore these questions with the developers. In the meantime, let's pray that there is some workable answer to each of these, that does not fail as the process is scaled up to levels of production that matter.

Now imagine the wealthy, developed nations and nongovernmental organizations getting onboard with Sundrop in a big way, placing a big bet on the technology. How about starting in sub-Saharan Africa, where food shortages are both chronic and acute? How about some aggressive, coordinated trial investments by:
  • the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service,  including its Office of Capacity Building and Development
  • Oxfam
  • the Gates Foundation
  • the Catholic Church
  • agribusinesses (Cargill, ADM, Monsanto)
The Sundrop Farms technology represents great hope for the Century of Scarcity. I close with a quotation from the Holy Bible, which amazingly was today's daily reading in the Catholic lectionary: (Isaiah 41: 17-20)

17 “The poor and needy search for water,
    but there is none;
    their tongues are parched with thirst.
But I the Lord will answer them;
    I, the God of Israel, will not forsake them.
18 I will make rivers flow on barren heights,
    and springs within the valleys.
I will turn the desert into pools of water,
    and the parched ground into springs.
19 I will put in the desert
    the cedar and the acacia, the myrtle and the olive.
I will set junipers in the wasteland,
    the fir and the cypress together,
20 so that people may see and know,
    may consider and understand,
that the hand of the Lord has done this,
    that the Holy One of Israel has created it."


Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Food prices spike--again

Alan Bjerga examined, in his excellent book "Endless Appetites," the behavior of markets during the food price spikes of 2007-8 and 2010.

Well, as expected, it's happening again . US droughts and excessive UK rainfall have damaged grain crops in both nations.

In our October 20 blog entry, we gave a link to a BBC story centered on the US drought. The price rises are essentially inevitable in the near term.