What does Outer Space have to do with it? (third of a series)

ASTEROID MINING

The recent announcement by Planetary Resources was the inspiration for this series. I made the statement that the idea of mining asteroids is not as crazy as it sounds. I thought I'd have to do a lot of writing to justify that statement; but then came along this article in Popular Science entitled, "Why Mining an Asteroid for Water and Precious Metals Isn't as Crazy as it Sounds." Fancy that.

In the last decade, there have been some stunning achievements using robotics in space. Most people haven't heard of them. The media tend to focus on just three technologies--human space operations (the Shuttle and Space Station), the Hubble Space Telescope, and the Mars rovers--to the exclusion of almost everything else.  So here are some of the coolest space programs you've never heard of:

• From 1997 through 2002, Japan led the way with the launch and successful operations of "Kiku No. 7," known more familiarly in the space community as ETS-VII. These two spacecraft mated and demated several times without assistance from the ground. One of the two craft also had a robotic arm that performed many manipulations of objects, all automatic, without human involvement.
• In 2005, the U.S. Air Force launched XSS-11, which was able to maneuver around and inspect an ARBITRARY object--one not specifically given special features to help with rendezvous. This capability is perhaps more relevant to asteroid exploration than experiments having custom-built rendezvous and docking features.
• 2007 saw the launch and operations of the Orbital Express experiment created by DARPA (the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency of the U.S. Defense Department). Your blogger was involved early in the planning phase of this fantastic program. Orbital Express repeated the Japanese success in autonomous rendezvous and docking, but then executed two amazing "firsts"--one spacecraft being refueled by the other, and a computer module being swapped out by a robotic arm.
• Late last year, DARPA announced the Phoenix program, intended to recover valuable resources and bring them to a useful orbit for reuse.

It's important that all of these programs have emphasized autonomous operations--that is, satellites that have the smarts to perform complex operations without a human guiding them at every step. Controlling things tens of thousands of miles away is hard because of time delays, and getting enough information to make safe decisions from afar. Plus, humans sometimes just get overwhelmed, even when they're nearby. The only time a Progress resupply vehicle collided with the Mir space station, a human, not a computer, was in control.

Next post, we'll talk about why any of this could be of any use whatsoever in solving terrestrial resource problems.

What does Outer Space have to do with it? (second of a series)

We want to consider the question, "What new things could we do in space to help with terrestrial resource shortages?" But first, let's take a look at what's ALREADY being done with space technology. It turns out that information from satellites is already being used in important ways to help with agriculture, hydrology, energy system planning and operation, and disaster mitigation.

POSITIONING

GPS, clearly a space-based product, gives high-tech farmers some significant  benefits. Some of these aren't obvious. For example, suppose a farmer walks his field and records the insect levels, mapping them with GPS. Crop dusters can adjust their pesticide applications according to the relative infestation levels. It saves money and reduces crop exposure to the pesticides. Louisiana State University's Ag Center has developed an overview of agricultural GPS applications--some expected, some surprising.

IMAGERY

You might think that pictures of a farm from 400 miles up wouldn't be very helpful to the farmer. You would be wrong. Lurking within the details of the light reflected from a farm--its spectrum, how it changes, what patterns does it show--is information about growth rates, storm damage, insect damage, soil quality, and many other yield-affecting items. Satellite Imaging Corporation, for one, makes a business of collecting this data from space, processing the data, and selling it to producers. Their website gives a description of some of their products, including how they are processed, and how they can benefit the farmer.

HYDROLOGY

Satellite-derived data can measure rainfall, water movement, and reservoir levels. NASA has present and future programs for satellite tracking of water in sensitive regions of the globe. These systems provide information on surface water. But much agricultural production around the world relies on irrigation--and much of that water comes, not from surface sources, but from underground aquifers. Amazingly, satellites can even provide data on aquifer levels--using radar and using gravity itself to detect changes. The depletion of groundwater is of major concern, particularly (surprise) in India and China.

This data is also a major input to the Famine Early Warning System Network discussed in an earlier post.

ENERGY

The uses of space-derived data for energy system planning and operation are not as widespread as for agricultural purposes. Of course, power companies rely on weather data to make estimates of their energy requirements; and satellites such as the GOES satellites in geostationary orbit are important to weather observation and prediction. There is increasing use of satellite data for planning wind turbine farm locations. And as more and more energy is generated from solar sources (thermal and photovoltaic), measurement and prediction of cloud cover will be crucial for efficient power system operation.

WHAT'S NEXT?

We can assume that there will be more innovative uses of space-derived data in the agriculture, water and energy sectors. In the next posts, we will ask, "Is there anything BEYOND DATA that we can get from space?"

What does Outer Space have to do with it? (First of a series)

Today saw the announcement of a new company, Planetary Resources, dedicated to finding ways to mine resouces on asteroids. Your blogger has worked on spacecraft projects for several years, and this new venture is not as crazy as it may sound (more on that later).

Here is the new company's website and here is an analysis in the New York Times.

But Planetary Resources wants to harvest platinum and make rocket fuel--scarcely relevant to our pressing problems here on Mother Earth!

However, there actually might be ways in which bold ventures in outer space CAN improve our resource situation and quality of life for Earth's inhabitants. The next several posts in this blog are going to address the question: "What can we do in outer space that will actually HELP solve the problems of the Century of Scarcity?"

An update on the arable land situation in China

Following up on a previous blog (2 1/2 years ago!)

The amount of arable land in China is marginal with respect to feeding its population, and that land is shrinking. Here is a good update (which ends by recommending that we all invest in farmland, as its price is sure to rise):

http://technorati.com/business/finance/article/arable-land-shortage-and-the-case/

A brief summary: Chinese arable land has probably decreased below the 120 million hectares thought necessary for agricultural self-sufficiency; that's about .08 hectares per person; China is probably a net food importer, and will surely become one in a couple of years; China is attempting to compensate by buying land overseas, particularly in Africa.

In his book "Endless Appetites," Alan Bjerga points out one of the problems of foreign ownership of farmland: how local people will react if they experience a food shortage while food is being exported. But here's another issue: at least some of the "available uncultivated land" in Africa is RAIN FOREST. There is surely a link between tropical deforestation and the rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. So while China must surely pursue many avenues to feed its still-growing population, we must also keep track of how their overseas efforts could effect the global environment.

Technology to predict famine

We hear on the news of another food crisis: maybe the Horn of Africa, maybe Niger. It shocks us again, and we wonder: "How long has this been coming on?" Technology has been put to use in helping predict the next famine. The US Agency for International Development maintains a tool called the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET). Here is the link:

http://www.fews.net/Pages/default.aspx

FEWS NET looks at population, agricultural systems, expected rainfall, and many other factors, to anticipate food shortage conditions up to six months out. So food aid and other assistance can perhaps be planned ahead somewhat, rather than always being in a reactive mode. Technical partners for FEWS NET include NOAA, USGS, NASA, and a company called Chemonics, which has people on the ground in high-risk regions.

What FEWS NET highlights to me, though, is that food insecurity is a distribution problem. There is general agreement that the world agricultural systems produce adequate food for the entire population; it simply isn't getting to where it's needed. Famine and food insecurity can then be thought of as being outliers, where bad weather and other misfortunes interrupt what is normally an adequate food supply.

But as the population grows, food insecurity and famine WILL grow as well--even if the distribution problems are no more severe than they are now, the number of food insecure people will grow proportionately with the total population. But distribution problems will become MORE severe, for several reasons:
--food distribution requires energy, and larger populations will make more demands on energy, reducing what is available to combat food insecurity
--food insecurity and famine are more likely as population DENSITY increases, which it is
--distribution infrastructure, such as roads and rail, have finite capacities which are more likely to be exceeded because of population growth

We will also require tools with longer time horizons than FEWS NET presently provides, in order to place infrastructure investments intelligently to avoid catastrophic food problems in the coming decades.

Market forces spreading profit and deprivation

[After two dormant years, it's time to revive this blog! News and solutions for the Century of Scarcity are showing up all the time.]

BOOKS

FOOD: I highly recommend "Endless Appetites" by Alan Bjerga, agricultural reporter for Bloomberg. During the food market swings of 2010, Alan traveled the world for months, trying to make sense of it. What was causing the swings--"speculation," as some naively asserted, or were more complex factors involved? What innovative approaches are being put in place to feed the planet?

WATER: In our local library, I came across "Introduction to Water in California" by David Carle. The incredibly complex system that provides water for massive urban regions is explained clearly and memorably. It really enhanced my appreciation for how artificial the entire Southern California area is. All of the region's water comes from hundreds of miles away. Moving the water requires a huge amount of energy, and ecosystems throughout the state have been (and are being) disrupted to achieve a steady supply for the big urban regions.